Man Utd's failure to land Fabregas signals shift in balance of power

Cesc Fabregas could have had a similar impact at Old Trafford, had he joined.

It was in the middle of July in 2013 and a flight was suddenly required to transport Manchester United executive vice-chairman Ed Woodward back from Australia to England. "Urgent transfer business" was the designated reason and, a few days later, it became clear why, as Cesc Fabregas was duly announced as United's record signing.

Woodward and David Moyes had demonstrated that the club's pulling power remained intact despite the departures of David Gill and Sir Alex Ferguson. The new manager looked slightly smug as he unveiled his first recruit, while uneasily deflecting questions about Everton's reluctance to sell him Leighton Baines. Skilfully, Fabregas brushed aside queries about the pizza he allegedly threw at Ferguson in the "Battle of the Buffet," after Arsenal's Invincibles lost their unbeaten record at Old Trafford in 2004. He had not managed to win the Champions League with his beloved Barcelona, he said, but he hoped he would with United.

This is, of course, a fictional account. Fifteen months later after this could have happened, Fabregas will finally make it to Old Trafford, but in the colours of Chelsea. He arrives on Sunday already established as a talisman for the league leaders. United have equipped Old Trafford with a new darling, Angel Di Maria, in the iconic No. 7 shirt that might have been given to Fabregas, but it is tempting to ponder an alternative version of history. What if the Spaniard had accepted United's advances?

The psychological impact would have been felt before the footballing consequences. Firstly, the addition of a superstar -- and despite their recent spending spree, it is worth remembering that United have signed comparatively few for a club of their magnitude -- would have given Moyes much-needed credibility. The perception that he was out of his depth grew quickly; the idea that a manager with limited ambitions and horizons was unsuited to arguably the biggest club in the world mushrooming. Fabregas' arrival may have helped persuade the doubters in the dressing room, even if only temporarily.

Instead, the downward spiral stemmed initially from United's transfer-market failings, even if it was swiftly supported by results. Instead, the "Dithering Davie" tag followed Moyes from Goodison Park to Old Trafford. So, too, did the 27.5 million-pound Marouane Fellaini -- maybe a reunion that damaged the reputations of both the Belgian and the buyer would have been averted had United acquired a higher-calibre performer. Certainly the focus on Fellaini would have been diluted were there a bigger buy alongside him.

On the field, the obvious conclusion is that Fabregas would have improved United's midfield; indeed, far worse players than him would have done, such was the poverty of their play. Barcelona sold Fabregas after a season when he scored 13 times; to put it another way, that was 11 more goals than Fellaini, Michael Carrick, Tom Cleverley, Darren Fletcher, Ryan Giggs and Anderson managed between them. For Chelsea, Fabregas had amassed seven league assists by early October; more than Moyes' central midfielders mustered in the entirety of last season. They struggled to break down opponents at Old Trafford, where United struck just 29 times. Different teams and different times, perhaps, but the statistics are signs Fabregas would have brought invention and incisiveness to a wasteland.

Perhaps he would have been constrained by Moyes' tactical straitjacket, as another creative Spaniard, Juan Mata, was. If Fabregas may not strike everyone as a natural fit for one of the Scot's sides, nor did he seem an obvious ally for Jose Mourinho, yet pragmatic manager and purist player have dovetailed effectively. He is flexible enough to excel in different environments. Moreover, it is worth remembering that Moyes' Everton midfield contained passers in central roles: Thomas Gravesen helped them finish fourth in 2005, Mikel Arteta excelled for much of the next six seasons and the underrated Leon Osman brought a spark in his last year in charge.

Perhaps Fabregas would have been undermined by being deployed desperately deep, Fellaini-style, but history shows a creator with commitment could make his mark in Moyes' teams.

Whether it would have been enough of an impact is another matter. The loss of Champions League football was arguably the biggest factor in costing Moyes his job, and United finished 15 points adrift of fourth-placed Arsenal. Brian Clough used to suggest that goalkeeper Peter Shilton was worth 15 points a season to his Nottingham Forest sides; goal scorers' contributions can be quantified, too, even if the unknown in the equation is how well an understudy would have done, and Robin van Persie may have been similarly valuable in Ferguson's final season, but it is harder to assess a central midfielder's value. Some of Moyes' defeats were so emphatic that it is difficult to envisage one player, no matter how distinguished, reversing the tide.

David Moyes might still be in a job if he had managed to pull off the signing.

So if Moyes were not still in charge, perhaps Louis van Gaal would have been happier about his inheritance. Certainly Fabregas is a player who seems to fit into his much-vaunted philosophy, or indeed, any of the three formations he has trialled thus far: 3-4-1-2, a 4-4-2 diamond and 4-2-3-1. Depending upon shape and system, he could have played in the positions occupied by Wayne Rooney, Juan Mata or Ander Herrera. For all the attributes of the five midfielders bought since Fabregas first eluded United, none is a playmaker quite like him.

If the Dutchman reverts to the diamond, it may be comprised entirely of 2014 signings, the 135 million-pound quartet of Di Maria, Mata, Herrera and Daley Blind. If Fellaini cements his role as Van Gaal's new Plan B, a physical player could be pitted against Chelsea's technical talent. Either way, it offers a comparison of the man United missed out on in 2013 and those they have bought since then. In the parallel universe in which Fabregas lines up for them, perhaps Mata would still be a Chelsea player. Maybe Mourinho would have sold him elsewhere; certainly United would have had less need for a midseason search for a marquee signing.

Indeed, when Mourinho did allow Mata to join United, it seemed an indication he no longer deemed them a threat, just as his 2013 attempt to buy Rooney appeared partly motivated by a desire to weaken a rival. He could not directly damage them then. Indirectly, however, luring Fabregas to Stamford Bridge can effect a further shift in the balance of power. Lest it be forgotten, when Moyes pursued him, they were defending champions. As it stands, that mantle will pass to Chelsea in May.